Monday, August 3, 2009

Even Worse Than Taxes...

Everyone knows the old saw about Death and Taxes, but the Commission ran across a fascinating (and a bit disheartening, if you had illusions about living forever) post today at Gravity and Levity with a lot more detail on mortality.

Apparently the odds of your dying in a given year actually double every 8 years.


The author notes that:
For me, a 25-year-old American, the probability of dying during the next year is a fairly miniscule 0.03% — about 1 in 3,000. When I’m 33 it will be about 1 in 1,500, when I’m 42 it will be about 1 in 750, and so on. By the time I reach age 100 (and I do plan on it) the probability of living to 101 will only be about 50%.

Apparently this was discovered by a British actuary (Benjamin Gompertz) back in 1825, and is now called the Gompertz Law of human mortality...

What the 108Warren Commission finds fascinating is that this "Law" still holds true, even with the tremendous advances in medicine over the past 184 years -- the odds have certainly improved over that time, but they still double every 8 years.

Just something to consider as the US looks at changes to health care policy...